Scorched earth tactics of the “Islamic State” after its loss of territory: intentional burning of farmland in Iraq and Syria

Abstract Recent literature shows increasing interest in analyzing causes of what was referred to as “unusual” fires Iraq and Syria 2019. Here, we examine the uncontrolled irregular within farmlands parts two countries 2019–2020 quantify their extent spatiotemporally using a combination medium coarse-resolution satellite imagery, land cover, precipitation, temperature data, multiple sources armed violence data. Our analysis reveals deliberate arson farmland Northeast 2019–2020. In comparison, only few were observed 2007–2013 Iraq, Al-Hassakeh, Syria, that became stronghold Islamic State (IS) 2013. 2014–2017, find evidence for increased various locations closely tracked military withdrawal IS between 2015/2016 2017 when it lost most its territory. We although burned area wheat-producing regions (Ninewa Kirkuk) have recently increased, increase percentage agricultural lands Iraq’s Ninewa Kirkuk not unprecedented. MODIS overestimates areas low fire activity while underestimates is high, compared Landsat–Sentinel-2 combination. A significant positive relationship ( r = 0.83) exists number IS-related incidents percent during 2019, which raises questions about future strategy terror group use targeting water-food complex.